The Takeaway, 5-17-17: What’s Driving Trump’s Job Approval Down?

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05/17/2017
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The Takeaway: Polls and Insights 

Details can be found at realclearpolitics.com

Daily Data Point: What’s Driving Trump’s Job Approval Down? 
by Sean Trende Wednesday, for just the second time in his presidency, Donald Trump’s job approval fell below 40 percent in the RCP Average. It’s easy to blame this on the flurry of controversies surrounding his presidency. But things might not be so simple. Consider the following: Trump’s job net approval peaked on March 5 at 45 percent approve, 49 percent disapprove, before regularly trending downward over the course of the next month. What happened on March 6? Debate began over the AHCA. Trump’s job approval bottomed out after the airstrike on Syria (and apparent abandonment of the AHCA by Republicans). It continued to climb until May 3, when it once again peaked. This time, the measures were 43.6 percent approve, 51.3 percent disapprove. It then began its current descent. What happened on the 3rd? The House voted on the AHCA. Of course, correlation does not mean causation, especially with just two observations. I certainly wouldn’t claim that Trump’s decline is solely due to the Obamacare repeal effort. Rather, the point is simply to remind readers that things often have complex causes, and that sometimes we have to step back and get a broader perspective. Here, at a minimum, I think we can say that the causes of Trump’s decline go beyond scandal issues, and spill over into policy.
Daily Polls

 Generic Congressional Vote 
According to an Economist/YouGov poll:

  • 40% of Americans would vote for a Democrat in the next House of Representatives election, while
  • 33% would vote for a Republican

 Direction of Country 
According to an Economist/YouGov poll:

 Congressional Approval 
According to an Economist/YouGov poll:

 Presidential Approval 
According to Gallup:

  • 38% of Americans approve of President Trump’s job performance, while
  • 57% disapprove

According to Rasmussen Reports:

  • 44% of Americans approve of President Trump’s job performance, while
  • 56% disapprove

According to an Economist/YouGov poll:

  • 39% of Americans approve of President Trump’s job performance, while
  • 54% disapprove
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